2010-2011 series to be decided by New York showdown

The ING New York City Marathon will be the final race of the 2010-2011 series, and while the women's race was decided by Liliya Shobukhova's win at the 2011 Bank of America Chicago Marathon, the men's race is still close and will be decided by the results in New York.

New World Record holder and BMW Berlin Marathon champion Patrick Makau currently holds a tenuous five-point lead in the series, with 60 points, but Emmanuel Mutai (55 points), Tsegaye Kebede (41), Geoffrey Mutai (40) and Gebre Gebremariam (35) are all within striking distance and scheduled to run in New York City. (Makau and Chicago winner Moses Mosop (40 points) are very unlikely to race in New York.)

All four men would require a finish in the top four on November 6th to lock up the $500,000 series prize, but Emmanuel Mutai has the best shot. With a first- or second-place finish, the Virgin London Marathon 2011 champion would have 80 or 70 points, respectively, more than any other athlete can put together. Should he finish third, he would have 65 points, enough to defeat Makau but maybe not enough to win the series if either Kebede or Geoffrey Mutai is the NYC champion. With a fourth-place finish he would have 60 points, enough to tie Makau.

Kebede, the 2010 Virgin London Marathon champion, has 41 points coming in to New York, and can win the series if he wins New York, giving him a total of 66 points, and Emmanuel Mutai is 3rd or lower (a total of 65, 61, or 60 points).

Geoffrey Mutai, the 2011 Boston Marathon champion, has 40 points, and can win if he wins in New York and Emmanuel Mutai is 3rd place or lower. If he wins and Emmanuel is 3rd, the Mutais will tie on points, and the series will go to tiebreakers.

Gebremariam is the defending NYCM champion, and should he succeed in his defense his 35 points will be boosted to 60, tying Makau. However, he would then have to hope Emmanuel Mutai finishes fifth or lower; should Mutai finish fourth, the tie would be three ways.

Ties are decided first by head-to-head competition, then by which athlete scored their points in the fewest races, by which won more races, and finally by the fastest average time among the scoring races. In the unlikely event a tie still remains, the five Race Directors would determine the champion.