Liliya Shobukhova currently leads the 2010-2011 series over Edna Kiplagat by 5 points, 65 to 60. Shobukhova will run at the Bank of America Chicago Marathon; Kiplagat at the ING New York City Marathon.
Because Shobukhova was 2nd at this year's Virgin London Marathon and Kiplagat 3rd, she would win any tie. Therefore Kiplagat needs at least 6 more points than Shobukhova to win.
That means Shobukhova clinches with 90 points if she wins in Chicago. (Even if Kiplagat wins in NYC she can't close the gap.)
Kiplagat needs 3rd or better in NYC to have a chance to win:
- If Shobukhova does not win in Chicago and Kiplagat wins in NYC, Kiplagat wins with 85 points to Shobukhova's 80 or fewer.
- If Shobukhova is 3rd in Chicago and Kiplagat 2nd in NYC, it's a points tie at 75 points, which means Shobukhova wins.
- If Shobukhova is 4th in Chicago and Kiplagat 3rd in NYC, it is again a tie, this time at 70 points, which Shobukhova wins (but Kiplagat 2nd in NYC, she wins).
- If Shobukhova 5th in Chicago, Kiplagat needs 3rd in NYC to win; if 4th or 5th, she doesn't get enough points to win.
- If Shobukhova does not score in Chicago, Kiplagat needs 3rd in NYC to win; 4th would produce a tie at 65 points.